And The Winner Is - Ambivalence and Apathy

Now that we've had some time to pore over the election results, we add the following observations to our previously stated statistical results:

• While turnout was low, Byers and Pratt benefited from comparatively high turnout in the areas that favored them. In the precincts where Byers and Pratt won, average turnout was at least 7 percentage points higher than the few areas where they lost. For those precincts where Byers and Pratt received an outright majority of votes, average turnout exceeded 50% (with Shaw being a notable exception).

• In absolute numbers, the undervote was greatest in Lopez North (a particular Byers/Pratt stronghold), Orcas West, Eastsound, and Friday Harbor North. Each of those precincts has about 500 more potential votes than were cast in the primary. The only precincts in the county with more than 1,000 registered voters are Lopez North, Orcas West, and Eastsound, so despite relatively high turnout in those precincts, they still had a large number of un-cast votes too. Just the un-cast votes in Orcas Central, for example, are equivalent to more votes than exist in the entire precincts of Turn Point, Blakely, Decatur, Shaw, or Waldron.

• Byers won in 15 of 19 precincts and had an outright majority in 4 precincts.

• Pratt won in 14 of 19 percents and had an outright majority in 5 precincts.

The numbers prove the tautology that Byers and Pratt won because their supporters turned out in greater numbers than those of other candidates. It looks like the general election probably will come down to who can generate enough excitement to get the vote out, because a lot of our fellow citizens simply did not participate in the primary. For those who might claim that Lopez had an inordinate effect on this election, I would only offer the clarification that, because of the low turnout, it would be more accurate to say that "only about half of Lopez" had an inordinate effect on this election -- we're talking 1,000 Lopezian voters, roughly 700 of whom voted for Pratt and Byers. The rest of Lopez, like most county voters, just didn't vote at all.

Election Tally Update

No substantive change resulting from the latest vote tally announced at 5pm.  You can find the results here.

• Forlenza - 1,113, 19.6%
• Pratt - 2,758, 48.5%
• Jarman - 1,821, 32.0%
• Total Votes - 5,692, 100%

Precinct results for the San Juan race can be found here.

• Ayers - 1,456, 24.9%
• Hughes - 1,622, 27.7%
• Byers - 2,772, 47.4%
• Total Votes - 5,850, 100%

Precinct results for the Orcas race can be found here.

Statistical First Impressions

Here are some bullet points about the numbers coming out of the primary election:

• The most obvious numerical result is that no one received a majority of the vote (>50%)
• Turnout was low 42%.
• The Byers and Pratt vote was highly correlated. There are many ways to measure that effect, but one way to look at it is to calculate the relative percent differences by precinct and vote totals. For example, the relative percent difference in their vote totals was only 1.5%. No other combination of candidates had vote tallies that were so closely associated with one another. In short, the numbers would support the notion of a voting bloc.
• Byers and Pratt had overwhelming victories on Lopez, Shaw, and Waldron. Pratt, for example, collected 28% of all her votes from those islands. Byers collected 27% of all her votes from those islands (whereas those islands make up only about 17% of the population).
• Byers and Pratt did better in each other's districts than in their home districts. In other words, Byers did better on San Juan than Pratt did. Pratt did better on Orcas than Byers did.

The next vote tally will be posted at 5pm today.

Initial Primary Results

You can find the results here.

• Forlenza - 914, 19.5%
• Pratt - 2,253, 48.07%
• Jarman - 1,520, 32.43%
• Total Votes - 4,687, 100%

Precinct results for the San Juan race can be found here.

• Ayers - 1,198, 24.98%
• Hughes - 1,312, 27.36%
• Byers - 2,286, 47.66%
• Total Votes - 4,896, 100%

Precinct results for the Orcas race can be found here.

We'll analyze the results, and put up another post later.