Showing posts with label Stockdale. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stockdale. Show all posts

Saturday, June 20, 2015

Most Official County Response?

As a brief interlude ...

As some of you may know, Stan Matthews recently retired, so he's no longer the County public spokesperson.

A reader sent me the video below purporting to show the new County spokesperson providing the official County response to the ongoing controversy over the Portland Fair situation. I also was sent a related video purporting to show Mike Thomas and his wife being interviewed about their involvement in that controversy.

Enjoy!








Wednesday, February 19, 2014

Even A Blind Squirrel

We have written about the Department of Ecology's Tom Hruby before. Whenever Erik Stockdale of Ecology requires heavy-duty science backup, he calls in Dr. Hruby, and the results are usually farcical. Some of their collaborations are masterpieces of ignorance, like when they wrote a letter to our Council in February 2011 about "risk." Eventually, they had to back away entirely from that letter because of copious criticism, including from Dr. Tim Verslcyke, a highly-qualified and well-published ecological risk assessment professional on the faculty of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute.

So it was with some trepidation and amusement that I began to read Hruby's latest publication, Update on Wetland Buffers: The State of the Science, Final Report. Relative to genuinely professional work about risk assessment and/or fate and transport, it's still amateurish ... but nevertheless ... it isn't completely wrong. Let's review a couple of the good things about this mediocre report.
  1. For water quality, Huby admits that the effectiveness of buffers depends on site-specific factors. He says that recent research has increased our understanding of the many different factors that control the effectiveness of a buffer at trapping pollutants, and then he names width, slope, type of vegetation, type of pollutant, geochemical and physical properties of the soil, infiltration rates of the soils, sources of pollutants, concentration of pollutants, path of surface water through the buffer, and for phosphorus, the amount of phosphorous already trapped by the soil.
  2. For habitat, Hruby admits that studies do not show minimum buffer distances needed to protect species, but only show how far species roam from wetlands. He also says that there is very little research correlating plant diversity in wetlands with buffer width.
Please note that this document specifically mentions, for the first time, some very key points that side with the persistent criticisms of our CAOs. Our CAOs have never considered type of pollutant, concentration of pollutant, source of pollutant, or the geochemical and physical properties of the soil. This is what we mean when we talk about an "exposure scenario." Dr. Hruby is ignorant of standard risk assessment terminology, so he doesn't use the customary term, but that's what he is referring to.

Furthermore, we have all heard the Department of Ecology and Dr. Adamus proclaim that amphibians can be found hundreds of feet away from a wetland; therefore, buffers should be hundreds of feet wide to accommodate their roaming. Hruby admits that this "roaming data" is not related to buffer width. Stated another way, there is no science that explains how the distribution of wetland dependent species varies with buffer width. Amphibians may roam hundreds of feet away from a wetland regardless whether the buffer is hundreds of feet, tens of feet, or nonexistent. We do not know how, or even whether, changing buffer width affects species distribution. Anyone who has found tree frogs in their window boxes, for example, knows that tree frog wandering does not seem to depend on buffer size.

There are other good admissions in this report. Key Point #4 on page 30 says "Several researchers have recommended a more flexible approach that allows buffer widths to be varied depending on site-specific conditions." On page 10, the report says, "Site-specific factors (vegetation density and spacing, initial soil water content, saturated hydraulic conductivity, and sediment characteristics) are so important in determining the effectiveness of a buffer that simple designs that do not account for these factors can fail to perform their protective functions."

And lastly, this report discusses the Meyer and Zhang papers, both of which have been the topic of intense discussion at various Planning Commission and County Council meetings over the past two years.

We'll save our substantial criticisms of the report for the next post, but for now, take some heart in the fact that even a blind Department of Ecology can find a nut once in a while.

Saturday, December 1, 2012

First They Came ...

Some Trojan Heron readers may be acquainted with the text of a statement by Martin Niemöller that describes the methods of totalitarianism witnessed in his native Germany. It was a simple formula: pick on specific groups one at a time and count on the silence of all the other groups. For Godwin's Law reasons, I try to avoid all references to the Nazis, but the Lunny situation (see previous post) makes me think of a Critical Areas Ordinance (CAO) variation of the Niemöller text:
First they came for the rural inhabitants of King County, and I did not speak out because I did not live in King County. 
Then they came for the country people of Eastern Washington and the Olympic Penninsula, and I did not speak out because I did not live there. 
Then they came for the farmers and fisherman of my County, and I did not speak out because I was not a farmer or fisherman. 
Then they came for the homeowners, and there was no one left to speak out for me.
Niemöller's original statement was published in a 1955 book by Milton Mayer, They Thought They Were Free, based on interviews he had conducted in Germany several years earlier

To avoid Reductio ad Hitlerium, I have to clearly state that, no, we are not fighting Nazis, but some of the eco-bureaucratic tactics and reactions by The People can be viewed in a similar light. My Niemöller-style text is but a poor attempt to convey some instances of this for the CAOs. I am sure that Trojan Heron readers could come up with much better versions.

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Blast From The Past - How The CAOs Came Together

Some of you may remember Dr. Dr. Kenn Brooks. That's not a typo. I call him Dr. Dr. because he has two doctorates. Brooks was a participant in some CAO-related seminars here a few years ago. He lives in Jefferson County. Brooks challenged much of Ecology's Critical Areas Ordinances (CAOs) and Shoreline Management Plan (SMP) science, and I think we've gleaned enough through our own experiences to know that Brooks was right.

In the email below, we witness Ecology's reaction to Kenn Brooks and other citizens who dare to challenge Ecology (in this specific case, over SMP science, a prelude to our battles to come). It is a typical Ecology reaction, typically organized by Erik Stockdale, to typically malign anyone who confronts Ecology authority, and in typical style it involves way too many public officials discrediting citizens for no apparent reason other than the fact that the citizens are thinking for themselves. Like Delta Force going after terrorists, the Ecology pseudo-science squad deploys to crush independently minded scientists before they spread.

While the email below is about the SMP, Ecology approaches the CAOs and SMP with the same attitude. After all, the CAOs are really just the warm-up act for the SMP. Unlike the SMP, however, Ecology (Gordon White) asserts that the agency has no authority over the CAOs, which is a little puzzling considering they have a whole division of people working on nothing but matters related to it. Fork-tongued Ecology always seems to spend a considerable proportion of time on topics that they profess to have no involvement in. Maybe that's why Stockdale suggests the entire email thread should be deleted.

As a postscript, for a "public" servant Stockdale has an awful lot of conversations that he's thinks should be private. After looking through hundreds of Ecology emails, I wish I had a penny for every instance where Stockdale admonishes, "Please do not forward."
____________________________________________________
From: Stockdale, Erik (ECY) 
Sent: Thursday, April 01, 2010 4:07 PM
To: McMillan, Andy (ECY); Lund, Perry (ECY)
Cc: Hruby, Tom (ECY)
Subject: RE: hola
Andy, I just tried reaching you on your cell. Let¹s talk tomorrow.
Tom, please read this thread from the bottom. Can either Tom or Perry set up a conference call? I can be reached at 206-524-6858. 1pm works well for me.
At some point I think we should all delete this email thread.
Thanks, Erik
From: McMillan, Andy (ECY) 
Sent: Thursday, April 01, 2010 4:03 PM
To: Lund, Perry (ECY); Stockdale, Erik (ECY)
Subject: RE: hola
I am available Friday between 1-3.  I recommend we include Tom in the initial conversation unless you guys think otherwise.
From: Lund, Perry (ECY) 
Sent: Thursday, April 01, 2010 6:51 AM
To: Stockdale, Erik (ECY); McMillan, Andy (ECY)
Subject: RE: hola
I'm in the field today.  Here tomorrow.  I hope you're feeling better, Erik.

From: Stockdale, Erik (ECY)
Sent: Wed 3/31/2010 6:38 PM
To: Lund, Perry (ECY); McMillan, Andy (ECY)
Subject: RE: hola
Yes, agreed.
I¹ll be working from home tomorrow as I¹ve got a raging head cold. Are you two available for a phone call? I¹d say let¹s start with the three of us, and Kathy if she¹s available, and then take some suggestions to Gordon.
Thanks, Erik
From: Lund, Perry (ECY) 
Sent: Wednesday, March 31, 2010 4:34 PM
To: McMillan, Andy (ECY); Stockdale, Erik (ECY)
Subject: Re: hola
Thanks, Erik. We should continue this conversation, but it needs to be broader than us. Kathy must be involved, and Gordon had some good ideas. 

Perry J Lund

From: McMillan, Andy (ECY) 
To: Stockdale, Erik (ECY) 
Cc: Lund, Perry (ECY) 
Sent: Wed Mar 31 15:51:08 2010
Subject: RE: hola
Erik
I am disappointed to hear what Kenn had to say.  I believe that many of the statements you highlighted are misleading or untrue.
I will be glad to talk with you, Tom , Perry etc. to figure out how we respond.
Andy
From: Stockdale, Erik (ECY) 
Sent: Wednesday, March 31, 2010 1:30 PM
To: McMillan, Andy (ECY)
Cc: Lund, Perry (ECY)
Subject: hola
Hey Andy, hope you are doing OK. You missed an interesting meeting last week. Okay, I lie some times.
We (Gordon, Tom, Paula, Perry, Kathy) met with Ken Brooks, Don Flora et al. in Port Hadlock to discuss the Jefferson County SMP that is before Ecology for review.
He said some stuff that I don¹t think we should leave unanswered. I¹d like to go over what he said, pull in Tom Hruby, and consider setting up a conference call with Ken. Though he says he¹s retired, he keeps popping up in Bellevue, San Juan, Kitsap, and other places.
Some highlights:
-          We ignored Ken¹s supplemental BAS document, and our response was an unscientific diatribe.
-          You told Ken that Ecology didn¹t want to litigate the Jefferson County CAO. ³Andy said let¹s negotiate², implying that his supplemental BAS was a problem for us and we were concerned that we wouldn¹t win and would rather settle.
-          14 references didn¹t support the conclusions made by Ecology.
-          Sheldon et al. was incomplete because we ignored key documents.
-          He hasn¹t seen any scientific rigor in Ecology¹s guidance documents.
-          He¹s appalled by the lack of intellectual rigor and scientific integrity in Ecology¹s work.
-          We haven¹t done our homework, period.
-          There¹s no proof that existing buffers in Jefferson County don¹t work.
-          He wants ³showing of harm² to be rigorous.
-          There¹s no mention of the toxicity of tropalones in wood in our BAS (implying this was a fatal flaw).
-          Terrestrial insects, shade don¹t support salmon in marine shorelines.
-          The role of large woody debris in salmonid ecology is misguided. There isn¹t a tree to be seen in the copper river in Alaska, yet the river teems with salmon. Therefore wood isn¹t necessary.
-          ³Who says that 90% removal of a particular pollutant is what a buffer should be designed for?²
-          ³It¹s incomprehensibleŠ with all the criticism of Ecology¹s so-called peer reviewed BAS that the agency continues to push it on local governments.²
Perry may have other notes of some of his statements.
Am not feeling well and am going to head home to rest. Pls. don¹t forward this email.
Let¹s talk in the near future about a response strategy.
Thanks, Erik

Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Iceberg Government

Who runs this County? Is it the people we elect? Sometimes it's hard to tell.

Many of the posts on this blog present evidence of how this County operates. We've shown emails of public officials and contractors conspiring to avoid public participation. We've seen State officials tell whopping lies. We have accounts from former citizen-committee members about being led around by the nose by staff and consultants.  We've watched consultants dodge questions and ignore evidence contradictory to their recommendations. We continue to hear double-talk, such as the State contending it has no authority over the CAOs yet the Council uses them as a scare tactic. Latest case in point, we currently hear some existing Council members saying that they have to pass the CAOs otherwise the State will slap a building moratorium on us.

A building moratorium? For what? As a penalty for all the horrible pollution here?

Threats. Sometimes our government seems to be nothing more than a network of bullies insisting that the public be ignored. Along those lines, the latest veiled threat from the Friends came out in the past few days. You can read Kyle Loring's buzzword-laden diatribe here, which combines several environmental themes shotgun style in an effort to strike a chord with the public on something ... anything. Having trouble getting traction on your CAO position?  Mix in a little coal outrage and re-launch.

Let's look at one of Loring's CAO comments:
San Juan County is on the verge of adopting one of the weakest critical areas ordinances in the Puget Sound region. The ordinance’s buffers are designed to allow 40 percent of all local pollution into our streams, lakes, and seas.
This is akin to saying we have the weakest air pollution laws in the region because 100% of our air is allowed to flow unfiltered into our lungs and homes. It's like saying that we have the weakest food laws in the region because we are allowed to eat 100% of the produce from our gardens. We have some of the weakest standards for public responsibility in the region because we let our grant-funded local environmental non-profits baldly misinform and conspire against us.

When our local smoking-gunners can't rely on authenticated facts or sound logic, they rely on their network to back them up. That brings us to "iceberg government," which is the term I've coined for the unseen people and organizations who really wield power here. They drown out and "out-consensus" the views that conflict with their bureaucratic self-interests. They freeze out the public good.

As a summa graduate of Bowdoin, Loring might claim some familiarity with icebergs (Bowdoin alums are known as "polar bears"), and he might even claim some experience with environmental truth. Here's a clip from Bowdoin's Kent Island Research Station from 1998.
Kyle Loring ('98) conducted an experiment to test whether false eye-spots taped to the back of a hard hat truly deter Herring Gulls from dive-bombing. To my surprise, after exposing himself to daily systematic walks through the gull colony, he found no difference in the frequency of attacks or the number of direct hits with or without eye-spots -- it appears that we may have been fooling ourselves into thinking that the eye-spots conferred some protection. He did document, however, that most attacks come from behind (60%) or the side (35%) vs. the front.
Maybe his research gave Loring insight into how to conduct attacks regarding the CAOs (i.e., approach issues obliquely, from behind or from the side, not head on), but I prefer to think that it might offer a clue as to why Loring's arguments customarily lack cogency (too many blows to the head?).
____________________________________________________



Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Countdown To CAOmageddon: Flaw #26 - Professional Error

One of the boldest examples of regulatory ignorance that I've ever seen appeared in our County on February 4, 2011. That is the date of a letter, sent out under Erik Stockdale's signature, that contains an explanation of "risk" by Dr. Tom Hruby. The explanation is, quite simply, wrong.

In short, Dr. Hruby says that "risk" is related to uncertainty surrounding poor decision making. He goes on to equate levels of "risk" to the legal concepts of "beyond a reasonable doubt," "clear and convincing proof," and a "preponderance of evidence." Wow! That is such confused testimony about the meaning of "risk" that it brings to mind that book Disorder In The Court which recounts actual exchanges between lawyers and witnesses in court.
Attorney: She had three children, right?
Witness: Yes.
Attorney: How many were boys?
Witness: None.
Attorney: Were there any girls?
Witness: Your Honor, I think I need a different Attorney. Can I get a new Attorney?
Likewise, I think we need a different risk expert. Can we can get a new risk expert? Dr. Hruby is describing "error" not "risk," and they are as different from one another as boys are from girls.

So what is "error" anyway? Error is when we reach a conclusion different from something's true value, and the probability of drawing the wrong conclusion is uncertainty (i.e., range of uncertainty and confidence intervals).  Think of it with respect to fire alarms. We want a fire alarm to go off when there is a fire, but stay quiet when there isn't a fire. However, if the alarm goes off when there is no fire, that's a false alarm ... and that's bad. In the language of "error," false alarms are called "Type 1" errors aka "false positives." The opposite kind of error occurs if the alarm stays quiet when there really is a fire. That's a failed alarm, and that's bad too. Failed alarms are called "Type 2" errors or "false negatives." In science, as with fire alarms, we want to limit uncertainty by controlling the probability of Type 1 and Type 2 errors. Neither uncertainty nor error is risk.

Hruby has mistaken "risk" for the probability of "failed/false alarms." Why should we care? We care because his deeply flawed reasoning about "risk" has found its way verbatim into our CAOs. Here's an excerpt from our proposed wetland CAO.
The approach to sizing wetland buffers taken in this ordinance is intended to be a medium risk alternative based on the premise that there is clear and convincing proof, and a high probability that the buffers will protect wetland and associated fish and wildlife habitat conservation area functions and values. The standard for evidence needed to meet this criterion is less than that needed for “beyond a reasonable doubt,” but higher than that needed for a “preponderance of the evidence.” The probability that the buffers will not be adequate is relatively low; between 5% and 50%.
Ack! Wrong, wrong, wrong. No, no, no! Just this one paragraph has so many holes in it that pages and pages of technical criticism could be written on this alone. Suffice to say, though, that Hurby's explanation has nothing to do with ecological risk. Furthermore, the eco-hypochondriacs out there are not interested in controlling for the uncertainty of false positives. They are more than willing to accept an unlimited number of false positives to avoid any probability of a false negative. That's not risk management. That's just uncontrolled (Type 1) error. That's a failure to manage uncertainty.

All this talk of "error" reminds me of another passage from Disorder In The Court:
Attorney: Doctor, before you performed the autopsy, did you check for a pulse?
Witness: No.
Attorney: Did you check for blood pressure?
Witness: No.
Attorney: Did you check for breathing?
Witness: No.
Attorney: So, then it is possible that the patient was alive when you began the autopsy?
Witness: No .
Attorney: How can you be so sure, Doctor?
Witness: Because his brain was sitting on my desk in a jar.
Attorney: I see, but could the patient have still been alive, nevertheless?
Witness: Yes, it is possible that he could have been alive and practicing law.
Other possible occupations might include working for Ecology or drafting our County's CAOs.






Thursday, June 14, 2012

Another Gem From Hruby

Much of the information, data, and reasoning that comes from the "experts" associated with the CAOs is embarrassingly poor. The emails below from Tom Hruby are about as bad as the letter he and Erik Stockdale co-authored to the Council on February 4, 2011. In that letter, I feel they demonstrated their complete ignorance of environmental risk. Their explanations appeared to confuse environmental risk with Type 1 and Type 2 error. I can only conclude that they have no idea that error, risk, uncertainty, and level of concern are all different concepts. To me, it's astonishing that they have their jobs without having a fundamental grasp of the differences among those concepts, much less be qualified to speak to the merits of statistical papers like Mayer.

At some point, the TH will post the Stockdale/Hruby 2011 letter and dismantle its reasoning. For now, have a look at the more recent Hruby missive below. It's hard to know where to begin commentary because it is just so awful, but maybe the best approach is to provide a few overall observations.

For Hruby, it seems the nitrogen cycle isn't a cycle. He only acknowledges nitrogen sources, but not denitrification.  He doesn't recognize that grasses (including corn) are heavy nitrogen users, and that's why people fertilize grass in the first place, so as to provide the added nitrogen that grasses demand.  Anyone who has ever had a compost pile knows that grass is almost pure nitrogen. And I don't know anyone in the islands who is even a moderate user of fertilizers, except perhaps the golf courses. Also, I don't think I've ever seen enough corn on the islands in one spot to qualify as a corn field either.

Hruby apparently is afraid of horse poop too, not realizing that the nitrogen in the poop is used by the grasses that get pooped on. The juxtaposition of his "grasses need nitrogen" point with his "manure has nitrogen" point shows no appreciation that the two competing processes might offset one another and be in balance here in the islands. Heck, with the surfeit of unfertilized hay that we grow, I would venture to guess that we might even suffer from general nitrogen deficiency and need more horse manure to be in balance.

The more these guys talk, the more it seems like we live in Bushwood Country Club and we're trapped in the movie Caddyshack.  Maybe given the leading role of Dr. Adamus, we should refer to it as Addyshack? How long before the experts recommend that we ban Baby Ruth bars?

I particularly enjoy how Dr. Hruby cites Europe and Australia when addressing Patty Miller's question about sources specific to San Juan County.

_______________________________________________
From: Patty Miller [mailto:PattyM@sanjuanco.com] 
Sent: Sunday, June 03, 2012 9:35 PM
To: Shireene Hale; Ingrid Gabriel; howier@sanjuanco.com; RichardF@sanjuanco.com; richp@sanjuanco.com; LovelP@sanjuanco.com; jamies@sanjuanco.com
Subject: FW: Our discussions regarding pollutants coming into wetlands

Hello,

I apologize for not forwarding this to you all earlier.

Thanks, Patty

From: Hruby, Tom (ECY) [mailto:thru461@ECY.WA.GOV]
Sent: Friday, May 18, 2012 9:36 AM
To: Patty Miller
Cc: Stockdale, Erik (ECY)
Subject: Our discussions regarding pollutants coming into wetlands

Dear Patty, 

I would like to summarize our conversations and my e-mails from yesterday into one to make it easier for you to follow my thoughts.  Please dis-regard the e-mails I sent yesterday, especially the first one that had an error in the math.

As I understand it from our conversations, you are concerned about three major issues (and please correct me if I am wrong):

1.       Do the articles referenced in the Mayer paper address the pollutants commonly generated in the dominant land uses of San Juan County?  Since most land uses in the non-urban areas do not generate toxic or hazardous materials, the removal of these compounds by the buffer is not a significant issue. 

2.       Were the amounts of pollutants used to calculate the removal rates in the articles reviewed appropriate for the amounts that might be found coming from the dominant land uses in SJ County?  

3.       Do we need to have a 75-80% removal of pollutants in the buffer if the amount of pollutants coming in is very low in the first place. Could we get by with a lower % removal because the amount coming through the buffer was so low? 

My analysis of your questions:

1.       Yes, the Mayer article does address pollutants generated by the rural land uses in SJC.  The Mayer article reviewed the literature on the removal of nitrogen by buffers.  First, when scientists talk about pollution from nitrogen we do not mean nitrogen gas but rather the different nitrogen compounds that act as fertilizers for both terrestrial and aquatic plants.  Excessive amounts of "nitrogen" cause eutrophication in wetlands, streams, ponds, and lakes.  The BAS report for SJC mentioned that nitrogen removal could be used as a surrogate for the removal other toxic pollutants and I think this is where it became confusing.  The major pollutant coming from the  rural and agricultural land uses common on the islands is nitrogen in form of fertilizers and ammonia and nitrate in animal wastes. Since the Mayer paper reviewed only the articles on nitrogen removal it is appropriate to use it for SJC.  If the lands uses in SJC do not generate toxic materials then we do not have to assume that the removal nitrogen can be used as a surrogate for the removal of toxic pollutants as well.  It becomes a moot point.  In urban and suburban areas of the county however, it is an issue because of the application of herbicides and pesticides used in gardening and landscaping. 

I should mention however, that there is one other pollutant coming from rural land uses that can be an issue.  This is pathogens (coliform bacteria and viruses) from animal wastes.  This is not considered an "toxic" material but it is a pollutant.  Pathogens by themselves have little impact on the functions of a wetland, but they do become an issue if the aquatic resource downstream is a source of drinking water or recreation.  Buffers can remove pathogens before they reach aquatic resources. 

2.    Most of the 88 articles used by Meyer to develop his model of nitrogen removal measured nitrogen removal in the field under actual conditions.  The studies were done throughout the country and in Europe and Australia.  The sources of nitrogen to the buffer zones therefore represent a wide range of different land uses that generate different amounts of nitrogen.  Some of the studies were done in forested system where very little nitrogen is released and some were next to pastures and cattle feedlots where the amounts (called the "loading rate") were extremely high. For example, one article (Hubbard and Lowrance 1997) looked at the effect different forest practices had on nitrate removal in buffers while another (Young and others 1980) looked at nitrate removal in buffers where the runoff came from feedlots.   

My conclusion is that the amount of nitrogen coming from the rural land uses in SJC fall within the amounts that were used to develop the Meyer's model of % removal. I did a quick search of how much nitrogen is applied in the land uses most commonly used for the buffer studies (agriculture, urban, residential)

For agriculture, corn is one of the most nitrogen demanding crops and it requires about 100lbs of nitrogen per acre per year.  Most crops require 50 - 100lbs/acre.  Note: nitrogen loading rates are measured as lbs of "atomic" nitrogen per acre.  For example there is only 1 lbs of nitrogen in 6 lbs of sodium nitrate, the rest consists of sodium and oxygen.   

         For residential lawns, the recommended amount is about 40-50 lbs nitrogen/acre per year thought most people apply more. 
www.neuse.ncsu.edu/lawncare.htm 

         For pasture grasses it is about 60-80 lbs N/acre/year http://www.extension.iastate.edu/Publications/PM869.pdf 

I believe that the biggest source of nitrogen in the rural areas of  SJC would be livestock of one type or another (horses, cattle, sheep, and even the camel on San Juan Island).  The amount of nitrogen coming from livestock in the county can fall within the range found for other land uses.  For example, a horse produces 9.1 tons of manure per year (see attached report).  Typically a ton of horse manure will contain 11 lbs of nitrogen so one horse will produce 100 lbs of nitrogen per year.  If that horse is confined to one acre the "loading rate" for nitrogen is similar to the highest level that is applied in agriculture.  If that one horse is pastured on 5 acres the loading rate is still 20lbs/acre/year.

3.    The one question I cannot answer is "how much removal is enough?"
If a rural land use generate 20lbs of nitrogen per acre per year is it adequate to remove 50% of this in the buffer or do we need to remove 80% to avoid impacts to the water quality in the wetland?    None of the articles cited by Mayer address this question and I have not been able to find any published research on this subject.  There is much research on eutrophication lakes caused by fertilizers, but none that I have found on eutrophication in wetlands.   The decision then becomes one of policy.  How much risk we are willing to accept?  We can be pretty sure that there will be little risk that the wetland becomes eutrophic if we remove 90 - 100% of the nitrogen going into it.  Removing only 80% increases the risk, and this goes even higher if we remove only  50% of the nitrogen coming in.  As you mentioned it may be worthwhile exploring buffer regulations based on the density of livestock upslope of the wetland rather than the size of the lot when addressing water quality. 

Tom 

Tom Hruby, PhD, PWS
Senior Ecologist
Washington State Department of Ecology
PO Box 47600
Olympia WA  98504
(360) 407-7274
tom.hruby@ecy.wa.gov <mailto:tom.hruby@ecy.wa.gov>

Saturday, June 2, 2012

The Astroturf Incivility Lament

Some of you may remember the posts on this blog about the Dalton video, and of course, many of you know that "civility" has been used to try to keep people quiet around here.

Below is an email from the Department of Ecology. Is it odd that persons demanding civility post a blog article and anticipate less than civil responses? Could that be because they know the blog article is inflammatory? Just askin’.

Makes it seem like the whole public incivility lament has been an orchestrated red herring.


From: Stockdale, Erik (ECY) [mailto:ESTO461@ECY.WA.GOV]
Sent: Tuesday, February 14, 2012 8:36 AM
To: Richard Fralick; Lovel Pratt
Subject: blog article, Ecology response to Dalton case

Thought you might be interested in a blog article Gordon White posted yesterday evening regarding our role in the Dalton case.


I suspect some of the feedback will be less than civil.

Please feel free to contact me if you have any questions.

Cheers, Erik


Erik Stockdale, PWS |Wetlands/401 Unit Supervisor|Department of Ecology| 425-649-7061|  <mailto:esto461@ecy.wa.goverik.stockdale@ecy.wa.gov

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

The Latest "Shaddup You Face" Message

From the online "news" that appears to resemble the unofficial CDPD blog at times comes the latest high-minded "Shaddup You Face" scolding. For all we know, it might be part of the "misinformation" messaging launched by the County.

Since there is so much talk about personal attacks and denigration, let's review some recent personal attacks and denigrations:
  • Shireene Hale refers to the public's participation in the recent Planning Commission meetings as "awful".
  • SLM (Stan Matthews) says people should "seek counseling" if they don't understand the County's old "joke" sign about lethal force.
  • Erik Stockdale of Ecology emails a Council member to characterize as "belligerent treatment" a citizen who simply disagreed with Dr. Adamus over the Mayer paper.
But getting back to Kivisto's article, what exactly is she referring to when she says?

Outside agitators are invited to meetings to distort facts and stir up citizens. They appear on talk shows in Seattle to spread lies about the county. Edited YouTube videos perpetuate the lies.

How can someone "invite" outside agitators? If you're invited, you're a guest, are you not? Lies? She actually uses the word "lies"? Name them. The article depends so much on vague innuendo that we cannot really be certain what it's talking about. By "outside agitators" does she mean the Friends? Most of the Friends' money comes from outside the County. Maybe the passage is referring to them.

The Kivisto article is long on accusations without any attribution or mention of fact checking. As such, it resembles agitprop that fans the flames while yelling not to fan the flames. She is pouring gas on a fire she is partly responsible for kindling.

Where was Kivisto's concern for the truth during official testimony about the CAOs? What about the hordes of outsiders from Ecology, consultants, and the Puget Sound Partnership? Does she have any concerns there? Think about some of the official CAO testimony of County officials and consultants in light of the following. In Washington State:

To sustain a finding of common law fraud, the trial court in most cases must make findings of fact as to each of the nine elements of fraud. Howell v. Kraft, 10 Wash. App. 266, 517 P.2d 203 (1973). Those elements generally are: (1) a representation of an existing fact, (2) its materiality, (3) its falsity, (4) the speaker's knowledge of its falsity or ignorance of its truth, (5) his intent that it should be acted on by the person to whom it is made, (6) ignorance of its falsity on the part of the person to whom it is made, (7) the latter's reliance on the truth of the representation, (8) his right to rely upon it, and (9) his consequent damage." (Pedersen v. Bibioff, 64 Wn. App. 710, 828 P.2d 1113 (1992))

If the population is upset, then Pete Rose and the Council should consider the likely causes. I don't think they have to look much farther than their own offices, and maybe some house cleaning would be in order.

Or maybe all this messaging is a just another manufactured crisis to generate support for more revenue via the proposed sales tax increase (0.078 to 0.081). After all, the stated reasons for the increase are:

The San Juan County council desires to provide residents with the level of services, equipment and facilities in the areas of criminal justice and public safety to maintain a safe and strong community.

Saturday, April 21, 2012

Removing All Doubt

For the Planning Commission hearings on the wetlands CAO, hundreds of people showed up dispersed over four days to testify to the Planning Commission or just watch the proceedings. It was a remarkable sight to see so many bright, concerned people from all over these islands participate in our democracy. It was especially wonderful to see the diversity of the people. Gone, at least for the moment, were the days when no one but just a few Friends or government staffers were sprinkled about the gallery while the Commission considered matters in relative obscurity.

But not everyone saw the experience in a positive light. During last week's Council meeting, Shireene Hale, the planner in charge of the proposed CAOs, characterized the Planning Commission meetings immoderately. When speaking about the upcoming schedule for further Planning Commission meetings, she couldn't help but editorialize:

"by May the PC will have recuperated from the 4 awful Planning Commission meetings"

Awful?!? Recuperated? That's how a senior County staffer views us and reacts to the diverse public participation surrounding this crucial topic, arguably one of the most important pieces of land use legislation ever to be considered by this County?

Perhaps Shireene prefers the way things were working last autumn, when she appeared to be making decisions out of public view, in conjunction with the Friends and the State, and then simply informing local officials after the fact, including suggesting what is or is not a scientifically defensible approach.

Judge for yourself. What's closer to your definition of "awful"?
____________________________________________________________________

From: Richard Fralick
Sent: Monday, November 14, 2011 10:31 PM
To: richpeterson@rockisland.com
Cc: Patty Miller
Subject: RE: What the heck is going on?

Hi Rich,

I received a call from Lovel  mid-afternoon today telling me that Paul Adamus threw a monkey wrench into the Planning Commission process on Thursday.  She also told me that Shireene was going to schedule a telecom with various players including Janet Alderton some time soon.  I told Lovel that I felt the process was spinning out of control and that Janet among others had no business being involved at this point in time. I strongly suggested that the Implementation Team needed to meet ASAP to sort things out, even if it meant meeting Thanksgiving Week.  At my insistence we are trying to schedule an Implementation Team Meeting next Monday.

Until your email, I had no idea that the call including Janet had been made as I was not copied on Shireene's email on Saturday.  I share your distress and promise that if it is at all within my power we will sort things out if and when we meet next Monday.  Please bear with me till then.

Richard Fralick  
______________________________

From: richpeterson@rockisland.com [mailto:richpeterson@rockisland.com]
Sent: Mon 11/14/2011 8:24 AM
To: Richard Fralick
Cc: Patty Miller
Subject: What the heck is going on?

I'm sending on a memo Shireene sent to the Planning Commission for your information and to see if either of you have some of the questions I have about this process. Among mine is: What is it about Janet Alderton that gives her special standing enabling her participation in a conference call that ends up changing a staff reccomendation?  Rich



From: Shireene Hale [mailto:shireeneh@sanjuanco.com]
Sent: Saturday, November 12, 2011 1:03 AM
To: Shireene Hale; Lynda Guernsey; Janice Biletnikoff; Amy Vira; barbara thomas; Bob Gamble; Brian Ehrmantraut; Evelyn F Fuchser; John Lackey;john@sanjuanislands.com; Jon Cain; Karin Agosta; Lynda Guernsey; Mike Carlson; steph3339@gmail.com; Susan Dehlendorf
Subject: Update on discussion with scientists

Hello again,

After the Planning Commission hearing we had a conference call that included Dr. Adamus, Erik Stockdale (Ecology), and Janet Alderton. The main purpose of the call was to discuss Dr. Adamus' comments - which came as quite a surprise considering he told us he had reviewed the proposed changes, and he provided comments that were incorporated into the most recent draft. After talking he understood how we got from his prior version of the buffer sizing procedure to the simpler version.

Among other topics of discussion, most if not all of us reached the conclusion that 50% pollutant removal and 15 foot buffers are probably not adequate to protect wetland functions and values from the type of pollutants typically found in residential runoff. For water quality purposes, Dr. Adamus explained that the 15 ft. was based on the removal of coarse sediment (the easiest contaminant to remove) - not the fine sediment and soluable contaminants common in residential runoff.  It would have been great to have sorted that out before now - but better now than later.

In addition, I reached the conclusion that part of our problem in dealing with some of the water factors is that there are at least two important variables, slope and amount of impervious area, that both influence whether runoff is above or below ground and that vary independently, resulting in an array of combinations (both low, one high the other low, both high, and everything in between) that are difficult to show in a table format. (Whether runoff is above or below ground makes a difference because pollutant removal is more effective when the water stays below ground). The discussion with the scientists is continuing and I have proposed that we consider switching gears and using a simple equation to determine the necessary width of the water quality portion of the buffer, based on impervious area, slope and the presence (or absence) of a drainageway. The high and low ends of the buffer spectrum would remain the same (except for the 15 ft. buffers) and the buffers would still be based on the Mayer 2007 paper - there would just be a lot more incremental steps in between the small and larger buffers - which seems like a more scientifically defensible approach.

Anyway, I will keep you posted.

Thanks for your patience - this is not an easy task for any of us.

Shireene Hale, EHS
Planning Coordinator/ Deputy Director
San Juan County Community Development & Planning PO Box 947

Wednesday, April 4, 2012

How Many Ecology Employees Does It Take ...

Recent public records requests show the flurry of activity at Ecology when the Charles Dalton video surfaced. Ecology prepared a powerpoint presentation. They blogged about about the video. At one point, they had as many as 11 staff at all levels involved with developing a response. Eleven people! And what did Ecology's response say?  Well, in part, it said that Ecology had no authority in the matter at hand.

"We don’t have regulatory authority in local critical areas ordinance issues. We don’t make rulings or issue enforcement actions under local critical areas ordinances. Those tasks are on local government turf" (Gordon White, Eco-Connect Blog, Feburary 14, 2012.)

All that PR effort for a situation where they claim to have no authority?  The email below is just one example of the many emails related to this matter.  You can see there are eight people, including senior managers, involved in just one email.

The real question is why Ecology cares about their image in the first place. They're regulators, not movie stars. Yet, they have a blog, a Facebook page, and they seem to have a surfeit of "communications" staff.  Are they communications staff or publicists?

From: Anderson, Paul S. (ECY)
Sent: Friday, February 10, 2012 2:02 PM
To: Skipper, Katie (ECY)
Cc: Altose, Larry (ECY); Hart, Curt (ECY); Tallent, Geoff (ECY); Stockdale, Erik (ECY); Summerhays, Jeannie (ECY); White, Gordon (ECY)
Subject: RE: PLEASE REVIEW BLOG RESPONSE TO SJC YOUTUBE VIDEO

Katie:

Once again, thanks for your time with this.  I think it looks good.  I would suggest a couple of changes to the PowerPoint:

Slide 4, Bullet 1,  Wetland scientists educated and trained in wetland vegetation, soils and hydrology  [link to SWS-PWS Website?]
Slide 5, Bullet 1,  County asks for technical assistance

Paul

Paul S. Anderson, PWS Wetland Specialist Washington State Department of Ecology 3190 - 160th Ave. SE Bellevue, WA 98008 Phone: (425) 649-7148 Fax: (425) 649-7098 Email: paan461@ecy.wa.gov  

From: Skipper, Katie (ECY)
Sent: Friday, February 10, 2012 1:19 PM
To: Anderson, Paul S. (ECY); Tallent, Geoff (ECY); Stockdale, Erik (ECY); Summerhays, Jeannie (ECY); White, Gordon (ECY)
Cc: Altose, Larry (ECY); Hart, Curt (ECY)
Subject: PLEASE REVIEW BLOG RESPONSE TO SJC YOUTUBE VIDEO
Importance: High

Hi, all. Attached is a draft blog item and PowerPoint in response to the YouTube video about Charles Dalton’s property on Orcas. Below is our proposed strategy.

Forgive me for sending to all of you, but I’m not sure who to ask for approval, and it’s important that we post our reply promptly. The YouTube video now has 1,857 views. The Freedom Foundation has it posted on their website, too, http://www.myfreedomfoundation.com/index.php/site/view/friends_of_the_san_juans_offer_justification_for_harassing_local_islander, and the Island Guardian has a short item about it http://www.islandguardian.com/archives/00004240.html .

Strategy:
·         Post the blog on our blog site, link to YouTube.
·         Post a short response on the ChangeWA page referencing our video response.
·         Post PowerPoint with voiceover as a video response. The blog will be the basis for the script.
·         Link to on our FaceBook page with reference to the Friends of the San Juans response: http://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=10150544103742087&id=106592947086

Katie J. Skipper
Communications Manager
Bellingham Field Office
Washington Department of Ecology
Office: 360-715-5205
Cell: 360-510-0682