Tuesday, February 12, 2013

Initial Primary Results

You can find the results here.
  • Forlenza - 914, 19.5%
  • Pratt - 2,253, 48.07%
  • Jarman - 1,520, 32.43%
  • Total Votes - 4,687, 100%
Precinct results for the San Juan race can be found here.
  • Ayers - 1,198, 24.98%
  • Hughes - 1,312, 27.36%
  • Byers - 2,286, 47.66%
  • Total Votes - 4,896, 100%
Precinct results for the Orcas race can be found here.

We'll analyze the results, and put up another post later.


  1. It will take a final count to determine the number 2 slot on Orcas.

    Hughes v. Byers is a contest. Ayers v. Byers is no contest.

    Should be interesting.

    Here's hoping that we can talk about real issues and keep the music lyrics on MTV!

  2. Is there anybody that dosen't understand that money is the mother's milk of politics.

    These vote counts make me sick.

  3. Wowza look at the skew on Lopez. 3 to 1 Pratt:Jarman.


    Man, I thought that redistricting was supposed to be legit.


  4. The Lopez effect is plainly obvious. Interesting that Forlenza+Jarman>Pratt, and Ayers+Hughes>Byers. Unless I have counted wrong, perhaps there is hope for the General?

  5. Ok Mr. Jarmin and Mr. Hughes. You need to personally speak to every single one of the voters that voted for Forlenza and Ayers and ask them for their vote.
    Tell them why you deserve it.

    Money will play, but grass roots, letter writing, door knocking and good ole' fashon campaigning will win this election.

  6. San Juan and Orcas could put it to Lopez by playing there game. It would impossible for Lopez elect Stevens if SJ and Orcas pulled together for McKerren.

  7. The outcome of the general election will be determined by voter turnout on Lopez.

    Plain and simple- the new format has handed the election to the voters on Lopez. At this point they had a fairly low turnout. We will see a huge swing influence from Lopez once they have candidates to vote for.

    Thanks to the charter review board for granting 100% of the vote to 20% of the population.


    1. Does everyone fully agree that the lopez effect will work in this manner? And , are there any means by which to mitigate the lopez effect ?

    2. Lopez had a very low turn out because they were disinterested.

      It is clear that Lovel will lose on San Juan in the general, but will easily carry 40% of orcas on the low side. That said- without a huge margin on San Juan the assumed 65% support from Lopez will do it. This will be the race to watch. I call this one Pratt with 52% of the vote.

      On the Byers Side, she will do better than Pratt on San Juan, but will likely trail Hughes by 2-3% there. Similarly she will outperform Pratt on Orcas and will likely split evenly with Hughes. Her Lopez following should at least hold steady-if not increase if Ayers falls out. Net result- Lopez seals Byers win. I call Byers with 57% of the vote - even if she loses on both Orcas and San Juan.

      Net result is that the Pratt Campaign is more vulnerable than the Byers Campaign and that McClerren is going to have to hit everyone OFF of Lopez very hard if he hopes to make a showing.

      In the end, it will be the votes on Lopez that seal the deal.

  8. The Lopez effect is so plain to see. How could the Charter Review Board possibly imagine this system is fair. It makes a complete mockery of the concept of a district. Why bother to have any? This has got to get fixed.

  9. Wow I live in a place where you can come right out and say that you think all land should be held in common and still get the most votes!
    What the hell is wrong with you people.

  10. Does this lawsuit being heard next Tuesday have any prayer??

    This seems wrong.

  11. The fact that Lisa is a committed Socialist is not well known. The quote from her video needs to be made into a campaign poster with her picture, and put yp around the county next to her signs. The truth of her background with the New Economics Institute and her desire to "tranform" our economy needs visibility.

  12. It's kool-aid and there's lots of it flowing around...time to work and work hard, keep the idiotic songs to yourself, keep the personal attack rants and loony conspiracy theories to the Daily KOS and let's focus on what the consequences are of a Byers/Pratt council means and convince everone you know of that and that alone.

  13. Let's stop pretending--this is exactly what the former Democratic Party Chairman and CRC Vice-Chair had in mind. Not sure that money makes that much difference--L&L spent $40,000 and still didn't crack 50%.

  14. 9:23 poster, I agree. TH needs to go pro here and be a useful implement in the battle ahead.

    As a song writer on the TH, I will refrain until ECK creates a separate column.

    This last comment may go against the conspiracy theory prohibition, but the opposition might lay some wacky sounding stuff out here to make the TH posters look bad. Double super reverse super fakeout reversed psychology.

    Agreed that personal attacks shouldn't be part of the plan.

    If the voters are made keenly aware of the records of L&L, should be able to swing 3-5% of them away.

    >>>>Lacing up boots<<<<
    >>>>Applying wood polish to soapbox<<<<

    Game ON!

  15. To 9:43.

    We had 50% voter turnout.
    Find out who didn't vote and convince them to vote for the non-friends supported, canidates.

    You know the machine on the other side will be doing this.

    They are shameless. Countless people received calls from canidates "endorsed by XYZ party and THE FOSJ", at the same time the FOSJ was publicly stating that "As a blah blah blah non profit, can not endorse any canidate"....

    Those who have deep pockets, this is the time to spend your money.

    Those that do not have deep pockets, this is the time to do leg work, phone work, letter writing, networking, campaigning, voulnteering, fundraising, and whatever else you can do.

    Let's get a dialouge going with Lopez.

    Let's not count out Waldron either. There has to be 30 or 40 votes over there. We need them all. Every single vote matters!

  16. The Lopez effect is wide open. It is just a piece on the chessboard. An important one but not the deal breaker.

    Support McClerren, put everything into this, go for hearts and minds, good folks on Lopez will do it for themselves.

    This election is now all about Lopez Island. And that's not all bad.

    I do not believe that anyone motivated to vote McClerran will vote Pratt. Some will vote Byers but most will not. That is dice roll I see. The game is afoot.

    Looking at the numbers and knowing there's a few months where an awful lot can happen, I'm willing to bet there are positive changes in the air.

  17. I have a good simple question for the voters on Lopez.

    What do you want from your county government??

    A) Leave us alone, generally, enforce the rules we have in a fair manner, and spend our tax $$ wisely


    B) Give countless tax breaks to special interest groups to build "communities" that contain everything in common. Those are not your chickens and eggs, they belong to the whole collective.

    We need to ask those voters what they want. Might help develop a solution if the problem is clearly defined.

  18. Not to be redundant I feel we are being stone walled by the county. Mr. Gaylord,please take down this wall, free the depositions. We don't need to wait for a ruling, just please release the statements. We got a election going on, are you not aware or do not care? Is it your wish for us to make uninformed choices? How do we start a petition to get the results of services that we paid for. I for one do not wish to reduce my vocabulary to a single word such as baaa.

  19. We are also being served up a media blackout by Sound Publishing. I am now convinced of this. This is really interesting given the small failing weekly papers they have been acquiring in the region for years, on Whidbey Island, Kitsap, elsewhere. The publisher is exerting a quiet influence across the region by not reporting the common issues in land use regulations that are squeezing the life blood out of many communities in neighboring counties.

    A previous post said follow the money and alluded to the influence of advertising. This is certainly part of it but there are other money factors at play, surely. It doesn't make sense. These kinds of stories are exciting and compelling. They attract readership, which sells advertising. What's wrong?

    I can see the real estate sector, a big cash cow advertiser if there ever was one, just begging the publisher behind the scenes to look the other way. Realtors are desperate to put on a show of stability, the new CAO is done now, everything is fine, no uncertainty in the market any more. Happy Happy. That is a pretty big economic motivation not to report these stories. The real estate sector does not like to rock the boat when it comes to their interests.

    In fact, that could easily be the quiet handshake, and its being echoed by Lisa's remarks that the CAO is simple and not so scary.

    Where does that kind of message framing come from? A certain real estate agent to the Great and Good who lives on Orcas, well connected to the eco-elites and old pal of Senator Ranker ought to be in the cross-hairs on this one, among others. But, again, this is bigger than San Juan County.

  20. Remember the vote count between Stephens and Myhr was just a few fingers. So Lopez has been split before and certainly San Juan and Orcas can trounce Stephens.

    On the Stephens/Myhr contest it never passed the smell test for me.

    Stephens consistent votes on the CAO's just never have seemed like his persona. DID HE SELL OUT IN A BACK ROOM DEAL WITH FOSJ? (you know the outfit that does not endorse candidates!!!)

    In a deal like that FOSJ wins no matter who wins. They get both in their pocket.

  21. Consider Jamie's waterfront guesthouse with shoreline armoring and ask yourself, what's the quid pro quo?

    That had his tireless service on the board of the Lopez Community Land Trust, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Network and it should not be real hard to connect the dots.