The only election result that seems safe to call at this moment is the one between incumbent Jamie Stephens and Brian McClerren in the Lopez race. Looks like Stephens has won that contest.
As for the other races, Jarman leads Pratt; and Hughes leads Byers, but it's too close to make a final call. While you wait for the next count of ballots at 5pm on Wednesday, have a look at a video of the Council discussion regarding aerial photos that took place on Tuesday.
If you listen to the video, you will hear that the resolution of the proposed photos is no better than that of Google Earth? Then why doesn't the County just pay $400 for a Google Earth Pro license?
Also, other Counties aren't making the aerial photos public, even though the photos are paid for with taxpayer money? Is that revelation supposed to be a comfort ... that our County government will have aerial photos that will be kept secret from the taxpayers who paid for it? The photos are public records. How can they be kept from the public?
The more the Council talks about the aerial photos, the stranger it seems. The County is getting some of the money for the photos from Roche Harbor Resort and a realtor on Lopez ... a realtor on Lopez? What?!?
So, what other non-san juan county agencies will have access to the photo's and other data? And what is the other data?
ReplyDeleteThe discussion on the one hand says the photos will be kept secret from the public while on the other hand predicting great public demand for them.
ReplyDeleteWhy won't the FOSJ pony up since they will be the primary users. The County will give them the password to the system. Didn't they do that before?
Why do you suppose Roche Harbor is involved in this? Any theories?
ReplyDeleteTo support the community and greater good I suppose. Trails Committee ... connect the dots ...
ReplyDeleteRaising money with a phone call for political friends.
Ask them.
Clearly, our county is run by the staff not council.
ReplyDeleteNote how Bob Jean refers to the " power" it will give the county.
So you will be able distinguish wetland flora from other vegetation but the detail doesnt rise to an invasion of privacy?
It looks like the Machine will lose if the votes stay the way they are.
ReplyDeleteBut the votes outstanding are all from Orcas and Lopez.
If Hughes and Jarman lose, we have one person to thank, Gordy Peterson.
Thanks Gordy!!!
The Machine.
We can't, or shouldn't blame Gordy or the CRC. This election shows that we can get more people involved in elections than just the political operatives that have run this place for the last 15 years at least.
ReplyDeleteLow turnout, but overall, this election is very encouraging. Big money and big influence didn't result in big results. That's important.
So Stan is claiming that the fire departments are going to stop to check these new ariel photographs before proceeding to the fire. The computer the great time waster, I can see it now ... start looking up the oblique picture get distracted check email, watch the latest youtube video and on and on... I am skeptical.
ReplyDeleteAlso, you can check wetland flora, but not see wether is pot or pole beans growing in the back yard. Yeah right.
I crunched some numbers. And if the trends remain - we will have Rick, Bob and Jamie. Here's how I figure it:
ReplyDeleteThe auditor says that we will have 60% turnout.
If so, Lopez has 236 votes remaining
Orcas has 426 remaining
and San Juan has 631 remaining.
This is my method:
Looking just at San Juan Lovel/ Jarman race for a moment to illustrate - San Juan voting trends are: Lovel 41.2%, Jarman 58.8%
So, of the 631 remaining we should see:
Lovel gets 260, and Jarman 371
I did this for each district and both close races - and if this method holds water I predict that overall we will have:
Jarman wins 3482 to Lovel's 3352
and Rick wins 3489 to Lisa's 3365
I'm nervous but hopeful!
@8:39
ReplyDeleteYour presumption of "if the trend remains" is flawed.
This is Lopez votes we are talking about. Look at their primary results and you may want to rethink your analysis.
I am optimistic, but fully prepared for an outcome we don't want.
Hold on. Bob Jean knowingly lied to the Council yesterday when he said the resolution is no greater than google earth. The shots currently @ google earth are the shots taken here in'08 which were up to 6" resolution but did not include the oblique angle. The contract Jean just signed includes higher resolution up to 3" for a specified number of square miles. What areas have been designated for this super resolution, by whom and why?
ReplyDelete@8:39
ReplyDeleteWhere are you getting the "remaining votes" totals?? I don't think those are accurate. I believe SJi has voted, save for a few mailins.
The rest of these voted will be from O and L
@7:39
ReplyDeleteLet's not go blaming Gordy for the CRC debacle. Any talk of bafooneerey will only serve to elicit an angry, name calling tantrum from Gordy and the ensuing 17 page diatribe from Don Pencil. We don't need that right now. What we need is for the citizens of this county to come together in a rational manner, without any individual agendas, and pass common sense legislation. Much like the CRC recently did. This flawless, legally unchallengeable, masterpiece of brilliance in legislation should serve as an example for generations to come. It clearly demonstrates that most actions dont have any unintended consequences and we should actually spend less time thinking about decisions and more time making them.
Cowardly, anonymous.
@ 9:39 AM
ReplyDeleteCurious what "fully prepared" means? That's pretty close to the Boy Scout motto, Be Prepared. Enough food and water to sit things out in the bunker?
If the Machine wins it will be a Pyrrhic victory at best. It will not be fun for them.
Did Jean lie, did Matthews lie, did they just say what they figured the Council wanted to hear, do they actually know what they are talking about? Who knows.
We need to:
1) Get our hands on the CURRENT contract draft and look for the kill switches
2) Prohibit Petroglyph or Pictogram or whatever the outfit is called to use the work product in any way other than to provide a 100% exclusive license to SJC. They may not sell, lease any related work product to any third party without the informed consent of the data subject. Want to watch this whole thing explode? Just push for this provision.
Here's the bottom line on privacy policy: "Individually identifiable information may not be released to third parties without the informed consent of the data subject."
Think hard about that, about the nature of our rural character, about the vast new invasion of personal privacy about to be unleashed on us without our informed consent.
For crying out loud, look around the United States. ACLU chapters are looking into this company. Privacy rights groups are encouraging counties to create privacy policies and ordinances. As we speak.
Yes. This is a Big. Deal.
Several council members were saying gee we really should have some kind of policy here but that's going to be up to the next council. Meanwhile go ahead an execute this contract.
As Laurie Anderson once sang: "Here come the planes. They're American planes. Made. In America."
This is as weird, creepy and wrong as you are afraid it is.
High resolution oblique photography like this without a local government policy resolution to guide its production and use is way, way out of line.
Once the photography is done, its done. You cannot put the Genie back in the bottle.
You know, its funny. I wonder why the County never brought this issue up in the Community Conversations. Yes Yes, the people said, please spy on this, this is why we moved here, to have our personal space violate. Please invade our privacy.
@8:39 I still think there is a strong case for hope. Here's why:
ReplyDeleteLopez certainly skews the results, but they won't be able to prevail this time.
At 60% turnout, Lopez has ~236 uncounted votes remaining.
Lopez voted for Lovel 63.15% vs Jarman 36.8%
While this is large in relative terms, in absolute terms, using these two percentages to divy up the remaining votes, Lovel would receive another 149 votes from Lopez and Jarman 87.
On Lopez in the Lisa vs Rick race -
Lisa garnered 64.5% vs Rick 35.5%
with a remainder of 236 votes
you have 152 votes for Lisa and 84 for Rick
Using this same methodology of dividing each district's remaining votes up by the percentages each candidate garnered in the respective district's last night, I believe that it will go like this:
San Juan 631 remaining votes:
Lovel 260 Jarman 371
Lisa 280 Rick 350
Orcas 426 remaining votes:
Lovel 229 Jarman 197
Lisa 202 Rick 224
Lopez 236 remaining votes:
Lovel 149 Jarman 87
Lisa 152 Rick 84
Totals (when added to yesterday's count:
San Juan:
Lovel 1455 Jarman 2074
Lisa 1515 Rick 1892
Orcas:
Lovel 1097 Jarman 941
Lisa 1042 Rick 1152
Lopez:
Lovel 800 Jarman 467
Lisa 808 Rick 445
Overall totals:
Lovel 3352 Jarman 3482
Lisa 3365 Rick 3489
So again, my prediction is: Jarman by 130 votes, and Rick by 124.
Just so you know, I am not a statistician by any stretch. So perhaps you see some flaw in my logic. Please do point it out to me if you do, so I can learn.
Correction to 9:39. Was not Jean who made this claim but Stan Mathews. My apologies:
ReplyDeleteAnonymous said... @ 9:39
Hold on. Stan Mathews knowingly lied to the Council yesterday when he said the resolution is no greater than google earth. The shots currently @ google earth are the shots taken here in'08 which were up to 6" resolution but did not include the oblique angle. The contract Jean just signed includes higher resolution up to 3" for a specified number of square miles. What areas have been designated for this super resolution, by whom and why?
@ 9:41 AM
ReplyDeleteHere's how I figured (or more accurately, speculated about) the total remaining vote for each district.
The auditor stated that 5,818 votes have been counted so far - which is 48.68% of the registered voters
She also states that there are 1,300 votes left to count, which would bring the voter turnout to 60% of registered voters.
I then found out how many registered voters are in each district (found the numbers online in the lawsuit against the charter changes)
Lopez has 2,104 registered voters. 48.68% is 1024, which is roughly in line with the numbers that have voted as of yesterday. So if the auditor is correct about the 60% turnout, Lopez would have a total of 1262 votes at the end of the day. 1262 - 1024 = 236 remaining.
I did the same thing for each district.
San Juan as 5,572 registered voters
Orcas has 3,763 registered voters
But you are right, we don't know if the 1300 votes remaining are distributed proportionally across the districts or not. And that create a huge error in my numbers if they are not.
Fingers crossed that my assumptions hold/ that Rick and Bob prevail!
Here's the only material flaw I see in your logic. Lopez will have a higher skew on voter turn out than the other islands because they had the school bond issue on the ballot.
ReplyDeleteI cannot say who this favors, but it should show itself as a noticeable bump in overall voter turn out. If it simply presents itself as a extension of the current trend, then it could be enough to close the Byers/Pratt gaps somewhat.
The real story for this morning is that San Juan is pretty well counted. The final will be determined by Lopez and Orcas hand-cast ballots. On A precinct by precint basis, the Byers and Pratt support seems to be holding very similar to last election, with them both picking up what was presumably some of the Ayers and Forlenza vote. If the managed to get even 10% of those votes, they win.
Can't see it happening for Pratt, but can for Byers.
16 square miles of 3" imagery is for Eastsound, Lopez Village and Friday Harbor. Any other targeted locations?
ReplyDeleteattachment 1 of Matthews report:
http://www.co.san-juan.wa.us/Docs/CAgendadocs/03-12-2013/8_CountyMgrUpdates_GIS_AerialPhotos03122013.pdf
@10:14
ReplyDeleteThe votes that haven't been counted are ones that were dropped off Imin boxes on Orcas and Lopez. SJ votes have been counted save for perhaps 50-100 that came in last minute to the box.
Lopez and Orcas will decide.
It's anyone's game.
Prayers are needed.
Well, any ballots mailed Tues regardless of location won't be tallied until today at earliest, and both drop boxes on Lopez and Orcas were emptied and processed at least once, a few weeks ago (as I understand it). So I don't believe the final ballots will be skewed much in any particular way. Also in general later voters tend more toward swing, less knee-jerk toward one perceived camp or another. Most of the wackos have voted. I remain cautiously optimistic, but this is really damn close isn't it?
ReplyDelete@11:15 AM
ReplyDeleteJust gave a quick call to the Auditor's office, and they said the 1300 votes left are from drop boxes on all 3 islands, as well as the mail.
So - San Juan is not done yet!
(however, I still have no idea how proportional the actual division is)
@10:15
I would have thought Lopez would have a higher turnout as well. But last nights total for the bond issue was 1,043 votes - which is 49.5% of Lopez' registered voters. This is only a bit higher than the County average of 48.68% counted as of yesterday.
Who knows ~ It's clearly all speculation. I'm just happy that the first count showed Rick and Bob ahead, and Brian with a better-than-expected showing.
Those I have discussed the aerial snooping with are appalled the Council would even consider such an invasion of people's right to privacy.
ReplyDeleteI believe staff is pushing this technology so hard because, without leaving their cozy chair, they can snoop in on any property they wish to.
Wanna see if there is a wetland there? Here we go, got it! This instead of actually seeing the property first hand and perhaps even having a meeting with the property owner.
Then there is the potential to make money. The assessors office will likely have someone sitting in review of every property on the Islands, meanwhile the real estate brokers get the a subscription along with politically connected pressure groups...it's not a slippery slope, it's a toboggan run.
I'm sure people who like to blow things up will love it too.
Can you hear them? Those forboding footsteps? They are comming for you...soon...
ReplyDeleteLocal island business owners who choose to collude with other business owners and use the county processes and systems to attempt to drive their competitors out of business will surely benefit from these new tools.
ReplyDeleteLots of reasons to try to stop this.
Looking over your fence...around your shrubs...keeping an eye on you...the FOSJ and their minions around every corner, up in the sky...looking...watching
ReplyDelete@1:38
ReplyDeleteI agree. Seems like Lovel isn't the only one who has set out to destroy selected small businesses.
Heck, I can understanding the perverse desire to squash competition thru abuse of judicial processes. I don't condone it, but I can at least understand the motivations.
I can't figure out why Lovell would try to do this same thing though.
Lovell is just a tool being used by the FOSJ, HOPEFULLY for the last time, guess she'll have to dust off that amazing self-directed degree and get a job doing....hahahahhahaha what was I thinking? Job...lol
ReplyDelete@1:56
ReplyDeleteSo that begs the question, is "destroying private business thru abuse of government process" a required course or an elective??
Hmm ... I took a self-directed degree because it had to be all about ME ...
ReplyDeleteLovel can hire herself and then whine that she's not being paid enough ...
Prediction of the Lopez pot-head debacle look to be playing out, we may get Hughes, but it looks like Jarman is out, what a disaster...are you happy now Gordy? BUFOON
ReplyDelete@3:44
ReplyDeleteYou are relying too much on Kivistos Blog.
TH anonymous analysis seems to have some merit too.
We should know in an hour or so.
Results IN. Jarman and Hughes!!!!
ReplyDeleteSJC election results have been posted!!!!
Looks like we all dodged a bullet - Jarman sqeeked it out! Hughes is in and Rhea's bitch what's his face....
ReplyDeleteAn open letter to Lovel Pratt.
ReplyDeleteGood bye. Your service was not appreciated. Now we will spend time undoing your damage. Do you get it?? The voters have spoken twice Lovel. If you don't understand this, then you have serious issues.
Good riddance.
Do us a favor and don't start joining any committees. Your busy body community organizer days are waning. Get a damn job and see how most of the rest of us live.
Basically, Lovel, Get the Dorf out of here.
Only 60 votes left to count.
ReplyDeleteHughes up by 148
Jarman up by 70
Any bets on Lovel demanding a recount?
ReplyDelete**WANTED: Used Pratt Campaign Signs for shotgun target practice****
ReplyDeleteWill buy or trade for ??? Resume paper? Integrity? Moving boxes?
Reasonable offers of trade considered.
No Sozhulism fer youz!
ReplyDeleteIf this holds up (inevitable Pratt recount) it is very encouraging. Will one of you data wizards analyze this and confirm my hope that enough people still respect freedom enough to counter to Lopez lust for statism?
ReplyDeleteSO relieved and happy. Was excited at the idea of Brian being part of this but maybe that will come.
ReplyDeleteI feel so incredibly grateful to the Trojan Heron for all that it has done to stop a very powerful and supported group. Just so grateful.
Also grateful to everyone who provided info and documents and insights and stories.
And the people who started Trust Islanders...at the 11th hour! Wow...just the push that was needed against a group that was not above bullying and misinformation!
Bravo! Bravo! Bravo! Well done!
@5:40.
ReplyDeleteLovel will likely ask for one, but I think it is outside the limits for an automatic recount so she would have to pay for it, or her election.
After seeing her court filing about how she is now destitute and in need of health insurance for all of her family, I doubt she can afford it.
The demand for a recount will come down to one question. Lovel, do you have a single shred of dignity remaining after serving in a dishonest capacity, passing unwanted legislation and breaking the law by meeting in secret??
I'll take an even money bet up to 20 bucks that she does. I think, given her complete lack of integrity, general common sense, and blatant dis respect for the wishes of the people, odds would slightly favor me. I think it may depend somewhat on that final margin, if she shaves it under 40, she probably will.
That's fine. We can reject her a 3rd time.
Lovel. Leave. Now.
The people have spoken.
I wonder??
ReplyDeleteIs it just me or does the sun seem brighter this afternoon? Does the blue of the water and the sky seem deeper? Are the birsongs I hear even more beautiful than yesterday?
Is there something besides spring in the air?
I would like to ask for a moment of silence to listen to these new sounds around us, the re birth of freedom on threes islands, and the chance our islands have for prosperity and growth.
Following the moment of silence, can I get a big HELL YEAH from the TH readers!!!!
The most encouraging lesson learned from this election is that there is a majority of reasonable, middle-of-the-road people in this County who are willing to come together and vote for people they know will do a good job and not be wholly owned by outside interests - Stephens loses if Trust Islanders gets involved earlier - to Lisa and Lovell, SHAME on both of you for dragging national politics into our local race, you both ran to the arms of the Democratic party and both Dems, Repubs, and Independents found it to be regnant...good riddance to both of you.
ReplyDeleteOf course that should say found you to be REPUGNANT
ReplyDeleteRepugnant? I'm not sure someone with a degree in "Self Directed" has the literary foundation to understand what that means...Lovell let me help you:
ReplyDeleteYOU MAKE PEOPLE SICK
Brian has 18 months to campaign. I think in between working a real job he can spend time being involved and promoting his message.
ReplyDeleteWhat's his name on Lopez, Rhea's lackey, just needs his record brought to light.
Brian, we are here to help.
Yes Brian is very well positioned, give it time, less than two years.
ReplyDeleteAnd this will also create the time we need to:
1) Disassemble the dissembling narcissistic sociopath who for some reason got elected and sent to Olympia where he simply cannot work well for others.
2) Find a better representative for the 40th Districtc
3) Reform the 40th District Dems (oh yes there are powerful folks on the mainland who want change in the party)
4) Reform the SJC Dems and send the Dorfs off of to Dorfville once and for all.
Will this be easy? No. Will they shriek bite and chew your ankles. But of course. But they are already doing that. What could be worse?
No, time to toss this dirty laundry out the morning garbage. Not much can be recycled I'm afraid. Its too toxic.
I have changed my political affiliation to independent.
ReplyDeleteI was actually registered as an R, but both the national parties are corrupt and disgusting.
To hell with both R and D. Let's form the TRUST party. It has local roots. Strong support from both sides, coupled with enmasse leaving of the national parties on both sides.
Let's all join together and always vote in the most qualified and reasonable person, political parties always become corrupt.
ReplyDeleteThis is HUGE!!
ReplyDeleteThe forward march of socialism has been halted and thwarted, locally at least.
Trust won this election. We the voters (with the exception of what's his name from Lopez), said we want people with common sense and business experience to run this county government. I think Rick and Bob, in 4 years, can make measureable progress and improvements. So much so that they will be recognized for their achievements. I will go further to say that these men truly understand the role of representatives and I don't think we will see any of them serve more than 2 terms. These guys are not long term life time politicians and community organizers. They are business men who stepped up at a time when the community needed them. BRAVO.
Let's toss Ranker next and get rid of Stephens in 18 months.
While we are at it, let's have this council take a hard look at committees and set term limits for these positions as well. 2 terms, 8 years, max. Maybe a caveat for positions when no qualified individual steps forward at election time, but otherwise, make these committees more about community service, rather than individual activism that spans decades. Jim Slocumb and Michael Durland of the MRC are prime examples. Tell them NO MORE.
Did the CRC, in all of it's infinite wisdom, see fit to propose term limits for the Council??? Maybe something worth considering. 8 years of service is enough. Period.
What you feel is the wind in your face as the pendulum stops and then starts to swing in a more reasonable direction . Thank you all for making a difference . Mark this date down , this is a very big deal. I have wondered how far we would let it swing.
ReplyDeleteAnyone who thinks that Lovel is going to get the message is as delusional as she is. My money is on her getting a few appointments from the Dems to assorted trouble-causing commissions.
ReplyDeleteAnyone who thinks that Lovel is going to get the message is as delusional as she is. My money is on her getting a few appointments from the Dems to assorted trouble-causing commissions.
ReplyDeleteInteresting - I can't find any mention that Lovel has conceded the election, while both Brian and Lisa have publicly conceded. Is Lovel counting nickels to see if she has enough to pay for a recount?
ReplyDelete